Thursday, January 24, 2008

This Time Really Is Different!

I'm going on record now in calling this the Recession/Depression the first big one of my lifetime. I know that so far, a few other economic downturns are still worse than this one, but I am convinced that we have not hit bottom yet.

The thing that makes this one different, is that I believe that we are at Peak Oil production. We only have one direction to go, and that is down. Every recovery in the past, was correlated with a rise in energy consumption. And every time, the new rise, broke records.

So how can we have a recovery, when we are at the top? I don't believe that we can. We have to drop, probably 10% or so, in consumption to have even a short term recovery before another crash. Then during that recovery, we can come back up 4%-5% in consumption and stall out again.

This Stimulus / Bribery package that Congress is cobbling together won't fix anything. Even Bernanke knows that. But Congress understands that they have to pretend to be helping the little guy during the election year. they seem to understand the essential problem. They've worked to make sure that as few people as possible have most of the money. Those people don't need to spend it. Now they realize that if people don't have money, then it won't get spent and it won't power the economy. They are getting bribed to help impoverish our nation and funnel all the money they can to the wealthy in other countries. But now the US taxpayer can't give wealthy internationals more money. Congress can't just give the Bin Ladens, The House of Saud, or any other planetary owners more money directly, so they'll give it the taxpayer, so the taxpayer can give it to these people when they make payments on their credit cards.

I'm not surprised that Bush wanted this rebate to go mostly to the wealthy and big business. He's always believed that those who don't need more money should get it whether they want it or not, while those who do, should be denied. I don't think anyone expects him to change now. Bush would've been happy just giving a few billion to the Bin Laden family. He doesn't have any guile.

Economic stimulus packages will actually make the situation worse in the long run. The economy can't grow beyond it's resources. It must have energy in order to produce goods and services.

As many have pointed out, the best way to mitigate this problem is through conservation. And that conservation needs to begin with the US Gov and the money supply. The growth of debt must be slowed dramatically in order to stop the inflation of the dollar, as it increases in quantity but continues to chase fewer and fewer goods and services. To accomplish this, the wars must be ended, and the hemorrhaging of our economy that goes with it. Our government needs to shrink.

But I do not at all believe we will do these things. I would wager that we'll be hearing about how war is good for the economy and how we need to expand our wars to create jobs. Essentially slaughtering our young men and women for cash as if they were livestock. From the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfield perspective, I imagine they already think of us as nothing but animals to begin with.

I still believe that there is a high probability that Bush will order a bombing run on Iran before he leaves office. According to some sources, Bush has a reputation for trashing places on the way out. They say he's destroyed a few apartments, just for fun. The next President will inherit the mess that George will create, and ultimately will be held accountable for the wars that Bush leaves behind. Like apartments that he's trashed when moving out, he'll trash the USA as he leaves office.

To recap, things must get a lot worse before they can get a little better. And nothing can get so bad, that Bush can't make it worse.

Forget about a meaningful recovery. Take your rebate check and use it to pay down debt. Work to become as debt free as you can. If you have a mortgage, try to pay it off in accelerated payments. It will be hard enough to pay taxes in the future. Nearly impossible to repay debts with interest as the money supply available to the working class continues to shrink.


At 2:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well said weaseldog.

At 11:33 AM, Anonymous fallout11 said...

Ah yes, the 'parable of the broken window' on display again by our puppetmasters.

I got news for these chumps: "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch." - Robert Heinlein

Great advice on how to spend any tangible value ever-so-briefly obtained.


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