It Begins

I'm late on the timing. I really thought the invasion of Iran would happen before it got late in the summer. I need to remember that when Rumsfield makes battle plans, he doesn't worry much about his fungible toy soldiers.

If they don't have armor, "Well hey!", you go to war with the army you have, not the one that American people would like you to prepare. After all, having a different army than the one you find yourself with, involves preparation and expense. That's money that could be funneled into Cayman numbered accounts through Halliburton, Gosh Darn It! Preparation requires work!

Of course, there's the happy story that the Army is going to end the current Halliburton contracts. They say they need an assortment of vendors in order to insure quality and competitiveness. They go on to say that Halliburton has done a great job, what with the rotten food, missing shipments and depleted uranium contaminated drinking water, whose complaining? Not the brass, that's for sure!

So I guess the plan now is for Halliburton to splinter into subsidiaries, and spread the contracts out among other Halliburton owned entities. I'm always an optimist in these things.

Over the last few months, we've been hearing rumors of massive troop buildups, equipment orders and shipments of military hardware to our major ports. One source says that the Army has built up a ready force of over 55,000 men, all prepared to board ships in one great push, when the orders came.

Between all of the armed forces, could we assume that maybe 150,000 men our shipping out?

In my own neck of the woods, the 25,000 armored semi-tractor trailers are almost all gone. They were visible in paint lots around town, getting their desert camo.

Now Israel has hit Lebanon.

In this modern age, attacking another country and spreading terror throughout the civilian population is an accepted response to heinous acts committed by a few criminals working in the shadows. The accepted response in terrorist attacks against civilians is the "Me Too!" response. When criminals kill some civilians, you go out and attack civilians too. Its winning wars by trying to sink lower in morality than your enemy. It's a competition to see who can commit the most atrocious war crimes.

Look at Iraq after all. Once we got rid of Saddam's torture chambers, ad-hoc executions and rape rooms, we began providing those services ourselves. We're out Saddaming Saddam.

Now terrorism is a big money maker. There's no doubt about it. Both sides gain prestige power and get to direct huge sums of money when terrorism is waged on a managed level. The government get's a free hand in fighting terrorism and can't spend money willy-nilly in the name of fighting terrorism. The terrorist organizations get monies from donors all over the world. The terrorist leaders gain respect and power as their organization gains notoriety.

As long as the two stay in balance, it's a money making deal for both sides. When that balance is ended, it's often because one actor sees some sort of gain in changing the relationship.

And so, Israel has changed its relationship with Hamas and Hezbollah. If it sought to end terrorism, by waging peace as Britain did against the IRA, they'd probably see much of the US and charity funding dry up. No way this would be permitted under any circumstances.

But this attack on Lebanon is just as curious. It doesn't make Israel safer. A destabilized Middle East makes things worse for Israel. All out war is worse than what Israel had.

So there has got to be a deeper meaning behind this attack.

And it's probably a part of the war to take Iran.

Taking US ships through the Strait of Hormuz is a problematic approach. The ships are open to fire on both shores. The fleet would be seen from miles away. The US would take massive causulties, if even a few ships were sunk.

An overland approach makes more sense.

So landing our troops in Lebanon, then making a convoy crossing through Syria, Iraq and Iran, seems like an obvious move, if Iran is the target. And if true, should be obvious to any military folks also. I'm simply going by strategy gaming experience.

Such a move is one that I'm sure the military in Iran has been looking at for some time to come. I have no doubt they've made some plans in this regard. I'm sure that our leaders know they are. I believe that Iran will be a much harder fight than Iraq was. But with our superior air power, we can get in and dig in successfully. After that, I don't know what the hell our plans are. Our plan in Iraq seems to be to use the chaos to justify lots of graft. Does our military industrial complex need more no bid contracts?

Regardless, expect the Middle East to lose a lot of oil capacity if this comes to pass. Iran can certainly do a lot of damage to oil fields in Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. the Strait of Hormuz will be a choke point that tankers might not be able to survive.

And if this comes to pass, get ready to walk or bicycle to work. The question may not be, "How much does gasoline cost?", but "Why isn't anyone in my town selling gasoline?"