Wednesday, March 25, 2009

To Infinity And Beyond!

I saw bits and pieces of Obama's speech last night.

All of his hopes and dreams depend on 2.6% GDP growth. He needs US productivity to rapidly increase, to provide additional tax revenue to offset his increased deficit spending. As the US government makes up 50% of the GDP now, that's going to require 5.2% in private sector growth. Or the government debt increase will just offset any pretend GDP gains. I don't see private sector growth hitting 5.2% this year. So GDP growth will have to come government taking an increasing share of the economy. This doesn't help in reducing the deficit.

He talked tirelessly about the need to return to an era of endless growth.

He clearly does not understand the exponential function. Or he's just spinning a fantasy for us.

But he seemed sincere. He believes that our energy consumption can grow to infinity, if we switch to renewables. He did not mention Peak Oil, or demonstrate any knowledge of our resource limits. His plan seems to be to put up more electric lines and encourage the use of fluorescent bulbs.

He believes that our nation's ills can be cured through borrowing and spending, if only the banks would only lend more. Mark Denninger likes to point out that unicorns don't poop Skittles. But this seems to be the heart of Obama's plan.

And he explained that he needed complete power to regulate the banks, so that he can prevent future financial collapses. No one pointed out that he already had this power, as did Bush. So we didn't get to hear the rationale as to why total power fails, but total power succeeds.

Change is more of the same. Hope springs eternal. He hopes that hope will bring the changes he wants, while largely continuing in Bush's footsteps. He does do a great job of scribbling on the margins though, doesn't he? Though he cuts all the meat off the ham first, he does throw us the bones.


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