I remember feeling really bummed when I worked this cyclically of oil pricing out in 1999. Usually when I crack a problem I feel good for a while. But it seems that understanding our dependency on oil just makes the depth of the problem seem worse. When I demonstrated to my own satisfaction, that the optimistic scenarios of the folks pushing alternatives could never happen, I just felt a bit empty.
This rise in pricing comes at a scary time. With Bush nearing the end of his presidency and prices rising fast, he is in a position to really screw things up for us, for decades to come. If he simply is successful in keeping his war going, we're going to have a bad collapse as he leaves office, if not sooner.
If he starts a war with Iran, I fear we're going to see ration books and government stores dispensing food from China.
Right now, just to keep the surge increasing in Iraq. The US Military is going to have to increase its consumption of fuel. So they will bid the price higher, in order to out compete us peasants in the civilian economy. Bush has plans to have 200,000 troops operating in Iraq by the end of the year. That's as many as we started with. The causality rate will go up, and this will demonstrate to the war hawks that we need even more troops.
The cycle will go like this. The surge will harm the US economy. Jobs will be lost. Young people will see they have no future. More will sign up for military service and go to Iraq. The increase in troop levels will increase the violence and death tolls, while increasing expenses and spending on fuel. This will harm the civilian economy...,
We are moving to a full time war economy. And in a war economy we're going to have to sacrifice. We'll have to give up jobs and the hopes of sending our kids to college. The price of food and clothing will rise. This war will send us into an economic depression.
If Bush attacks Iran, the Government's fuel usage will have to dramatically increase. The civilian economy may see a fuel cutback of 20-30%. This will drive gasoline prices up past $5/gal and will result in massive job loss.
The Commander Guy and other folks in the White House have experts telling them how different scenarios work out. They realize that the US gov can afford to borrow infinite quantities of money and funnel it into fuel purchases. For them, its just an ever expanding revenue stream for the oil industry.
The oil industry then, doesn't even need the civilian economy. The US Military is already its number one customer. If the military's role is increased, it can afford to pay, whatever the fuel costs, and buy it in large quantities. The US Gov will simply borrow the money from the Federal Reserve and then stick us with the bill. There is no accountability in the government for such behavior. Those who pay, 'We The People', don't have any say in the matter.
And as my previous predictions that the Democrats won't stop the war if elected. I apologize for being right.
The logic is simple.
The Democrats won't stop the war, because they'll be blamed for losing it.
The Republicans won't stop the war because they'll be blamed for starting it an losing it.
For our politicians, the war is a big ATM. Every dead soldiers is cash in the pockets of our elected representatives. They see how the economy is going and they understand, that if they stop converting live soldiers into dead ones, then the ATM will stop flowing. When the ATM stops, they'll have to live in the same economy we do. They'll be expected to fix what they broke.
What politician would want to cut off the flow of cash into their accounts, and be forced to deal with the problems that they have created? I would guess that very few have the moral and ethical spine to do so. No party is going to come to our rescue. This is a storm we'll have to ride out. When its over, we'll have to deal with the devastation, the best we can.
Don't expect those that have created this mess, to help fix it.